Dr Jérôme Doyon co-authored with Dr Franziska Keller the article ‘Knowing the Wrong Cadre? Networks and Promotions in the Chinese Party-State’ published by Political Studies.
It takes advantage of the exogenous assignment to cohorts in a training program for Chinese officials to establish a causal link between informal connections and promotions. It finds that the effect of personal ties depends on whether the official is connected to leaders who dominate the promotion or who only influence it through information. Connections to the latter decrease the promotion probability as they are closely monitored by their superiors.
The article is available online.